Steelers vs Broncos — Week 2, 2020
The Steelers took over leading 26-21 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 1 timeout in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 26, Broncos 21. Steelers won 26-21 — the drive time expired.
Steelers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 26, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.2% for Steelers. Our model starts at 90.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) 30-J.Conner right guard to PIT 31 for 5 yards (31-J.Simmons).
- (1:47) 30-J.Conner right tackle to DEN 10 for 59 yards (23-M.Ojemudia).
- (1:30) 30-J.Conner right guard to DEN 6 for 4 yards (22-K.Jackson).
- (1:24) 30-J.Conner left guard to DEN 6 for no gain (59-M.Reed).
- (:39) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to DEN 7 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.06 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick out | -0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.82 pts |
| QB keep | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Play action | -2.27 pts |
| Curl route | -2.46 pts |
| End-around | -4.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.62 pts |
| Deep post | -8.09 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.40 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.