Jets vs Raiders — Week 13, 2020
The Jets took over leading 28-24 with 1:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 1 timeout in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Jets 28, Raiders 31. Raiders won 31-28 — the drive turned it over.
Jets ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 9, 1:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.9% for Jets. Our model starts at 85.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:37) 25-T.Johnson right end to NYJ 12 for 3 yards (42-C.Littleton).
- (1:32) 25-T.Johnson left tackle to NYJ 13 for 1 yard (96-C.Ferrell).
- (1:28) 25-T.Johnson left end to NYJ 14 for 1 yard (22-K.Nixon, 44-N.Kwiatkoski).
- (:42) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to LV 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-A.Maulet.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.78 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.78 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.86 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.95 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.28 pts |
| Quick out | -1.55 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| QB keep | -1.78 pts |
| Play action | -2.93 pts |
| Curl route | -3.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.98 pts |
| End-around | -5.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.76 pts |
| Deep post | -7.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.