Dolphins vs Raiders — Week 16, 2020
The Dolphins took over trailing 22-16 with 3:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 26, Raiders 25. Dolphins won 26-25 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.2% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 14.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 84-I.Ford to MIA 32 for 7 yards (29-L.Joyner). LV-29-L.Joyner was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 84-I.Ford to MIA 41 for 9 yards (26-N.Lawson; 54-R.McMillan). Penalty on LV-98-M.Crosby, Defensive Offside, declined.
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 37-M.Gaskin for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.06 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.72 pts |
| Deep post | +0.69 pts |
| QB keep | +0.61 pts |
| Play action | +0.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.70 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| End-around | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Spike it | -1.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.