Saints vs Chargers — Week 5, 2020
The Saints took over trailing 27-20 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 27, Chargers 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 27, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.1% for Saints. Our model starts at 11.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 17-E.Sanders to NO 29 for 2 yards (56-K.Murray Jr.). Pass 1, YAC 1
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara to NO 38 for 9 yards (44-K.White). Pass 7, YAC 2
- (2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 17-E.Sanders to NO 47 for 9 yards (28-B.Facyson). FUMBLES (28-B.Facyson), ball out of bounds at NO 47. Pass 7, YAC 2
- (2:01) 41-A.Kamara right end to LAC 43 for 10 yards (24-N.Adderley).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at LAC 15 for 28 yards (23-R.Jenkins). Pass 22, YAC 6
- (1:46) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Cook.
- (1:42) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 12-M.Callaway to LAC 9 for 6 yards (28-B.Facyson; 52-D.Perryman). Pass 6, YAC 0
- (:58) 7-T.Hill at quarterback, (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.87 pts |
| Deep post | +0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.56 pts |
| QB keep | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.13 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.93 pts |
| End-around | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.02 pts |
| Spike it | -1.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.