Patriots vs Texans — Week 11, 2020
The Patriots took over trailing 27-20 with 4:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 20, Texans 27. Texans won 27-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 12.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:11) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 37-D.Harris to NE 36 for 11 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
- (3:32) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 15-N.Harry.
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 28-J.White (99-J.Watt).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 16-J.Meyers to 50 for 14 yards (20-Ju.Reid).
- (2:38) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 15-N.Harry to HOU 46 for 4 yards (32-L.Johnson).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 15-N.Harry to HOU 40 for 6 yards (21-B.Roby).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 28-J.White to HOU 30 for 10 yards (32-L.Johnson). HOU-32-L.Johnson was injured during the play.
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle to 15-N.Harry.
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 28-J.White left tackle to HOU 24 for 6 yards (23-E.Murray). NE-76-I.Wynn was injured during the play.
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle to 15-N.Harry (99-J.Watt).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle [20-Ju.Reid].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.57 pts |
| Deep post | +0.52 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.66 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| End-around | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Spike it | -1.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.