Patriots vs Broncos — Week 6, 2020
The Patriots took over trailing 18-12 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 12, Broncos 18. Broncos won 18-12 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 28, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 19.2% for Patriots. Our model starts at 14.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Edelman (29-B.Callahan) [47-J.Jewell].
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short left to 28-J.White to 50 for 22 yards (22-K.Jackson).
- (2:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Byrd (23-M.Ojemudia).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 28-J.White pushed ob at DEN 44 for 6 yards (23-M.Ojemudia).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 28-J.White right end to DEN 41 for 3 yards (29-B.Callahan; 20-D.Dawson).
- (2:01) 1-C.Newton up the middle to DEN 37 for 4 yards (90-D.Williams; 45-A.Johnson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 28-J.White to DEN 40 for -3 yards (22-K.Jackson).
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short right to 1-C.Newton pushed ob at DEN 24 for 16 yards (31-J.Simmons). double reverse pass
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Edelman.
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at DEN 30 for -6 yards (59-M.Reed).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 28-J.White pushed ob at DEN 24 for 6 yards (22-K.Jackson).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Harry [96-S.Harris].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.15 pts |
| Deep post | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.66 pts |
| Play action | +0.49 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.63 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| End-around | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Spike it | -1.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.