Eagles vs Packers — Week 13, 2020
The Eagles took over trailing 23-16 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 16, Packers 30. Packers won 30-16 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 31, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.9% for Eagles. Our model starts at 15.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard to PHI 36 for 5 yards (58-C.Kirksey; 94-D.Lowry).
- (4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right guard to PHI 41 for 5 yards (97-K.Clark; 94-D.Lowry).
- (3:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 17-A.Jeffery.
- (3:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 38 for -3 yards (sack split by 55-Z.Smith and 91-P.Smith).
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz (23-J.Alexander).
- (3:03) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to GB 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.83 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.59 pts |
| QB keep | +0.52 pts |
| Deep post | +0.31 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.92 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.11 pts |
| End-around | -1.16 pts |
| Spike it | -1.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.