Broncos vs Chargers — Week 8, 2020

What really happened

Final: Broncos 31, Chargers 30. Broncos won 31-30 — the drive scored.

Broncos ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 19, 2:24 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.4% for Broncos. Our model starts at 10.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (2:24) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 25-M.Gordon pushed ob at DEN 25 for 6 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
2. (2:19) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right tackle to DEN 28 for 3 yards (36-J.Addae; 99-J.Tillery).
3. (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to DEN 38 for 10 yards (37-T.Campbell; 24-N.Adderley).
4. (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 25-M.Gordon pushed ob at DEN 40 for 2 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
5. (1:35) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 87-N.Fant.
6. (1:27) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 13-K.Hamler to LAC 48 for 7 yards (24-N.Adderley).
7. (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton to LAC 34 for 14 yards (37-T.Campbell).
8. (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 30-P.Lindsay ran ob at LAC 31 for 3 yards.
9. (:35) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 25-M.Gordon pushed ob at LAC 29 for 2 yards (28-B.Facyson).
10. (:31) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 25-M.Gordon to LAC 25 for 4 yards (28-B.Facyson). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 25-M.Gordon to LAC 24 for 5 yards (28-B.Facyson).
11. (:27) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 87-N.Fant to LAC 18 for 6 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
12. (:14) (No Huddle) 3-D.Lock spiked the ball to stop the clock.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.