Cowboys vs Rams — Week 1, 2020
The Cowboys took over trailing 20-17 with 2:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 17, Rams 20. Rams won 20-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cowboys ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 9, 2:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.4% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 26.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper to DAL 14 for 5 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
- (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper to DAL 21 for 7 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper to DAL 25 for 4 yards (31-D.Williams).
- (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 18 for -7 yards (54-L.Floyd).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to DAL 30 for 12 yards (24-T.Rapp).
- (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 34 for 4 yards (54-L.Floyd).
- (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz.
- (:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right [99-A.Donald].
- (:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 19-A.Cooper.
- (:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup [99-A.Donald].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.99 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.99 pts |
| Curl route | -1.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.07 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.12 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.39 pts |
| Quick out | -1.48 pts |
| QB keep | -1.50 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.58 pts |
| Play action | -1.65 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.86 pts |
| Outside run | -2.23 pts |
| Inside run | -2.23 pts |
| Spike it | -2.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.82 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.03 pts |
| End-around | -3.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.