Chargers vs Broncos — Week 16, 2020
The Chargers took over tied at 16 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 19, Broncos 16. Chargers won 19-16 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.9% for Chargers. Our model starts at 57.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) 64-C.Toner reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 36 for 11 yards (42-P.Motley).
- (2:02) 64-C.Toner reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton pushed ob at DEN 41 for 23 yards (42-P.Motley, 31-J.Simmons).
- (1:53) 64-C.Toner reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler right tackle to DEN 18 for 23 yards (45-A.Johnson; 59-M.Reed).
- (1:41) 64-C.Toner reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to DEN 17 for 1 yard (93-D.Jones, 96-S.Harris).
- (1:36) 22-J.Jackson right guard to DEN 13 for 4 yards (97-J.Attaochu).
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at DEN 19 for -6 yards (93-D.Jones).
- (:45) 4-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.36 pts |
| QB keep | +1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| Curl route | +0.89 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.38 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| Play action | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.03 pts |
| End-around | -2.56 pts |
| Deep post | -2.60 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.