Seahawks vs Cardinals — Week 7, 2020
The Seahawks took over tied at 34 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 34, Cardinals 34. Tied 34-34 — the drive turnover.
Seahawks ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 31, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.3% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 57.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 42 for 11 yards (33-B.Murphy).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 30-C.Hyde to SEA 38 for -4 yards (43-H.Reddick).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett to ARI 48 for 14 yards (32-B.Baker) [49-K.Fitts].
- (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf [22-D.Thompson].
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 18-F.Swain [51-T.Vallejo].
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SEA-83-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 42.
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 48-I.Simmons at ARI 39. 48-I.Simmons pushed ob at SEA 49 for 12 yards (14-D.Metcalf).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.38 pts |
| QB keep | +1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.09 pts |
| Curl route | +0.90 pts |
| Quick out | +0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.41 pts |
| Outside run | +0.29 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.04 pts |
| End-around | -2.49 pts |
| Deep post | -2.63 pts |
| Spike it | -2.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.