Chargers vs Falcons — Week 14, 2020
The Chargers took over tied at 17 with 3:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 20, Falcons 17. Chargers won 20-17 — the drive turnover.
Chargers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 57.0% for Chargers. Our model starts at 56.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:46) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-H.Henry to LAC 25 for no gain (43-M.Walker).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 83-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at LAC 35 for 10 yards (24-A.Terrell).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 84-K.Hill Jr. to LAC 39 for 4 yards (41-S.Neasman).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right end to LAC 47 for 8 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right end to ATL 44 for 9 yards (22-K.Neal).
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to ATL 45 for -1 yards (91-J.Tuioti-Mariner).
- (:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 33-B.Wreh-Wilson at ATL 38. 33-B.Wreh-Wilson to ATL 38 for no gain (15-J.Guyton).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.05 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.05 pts |
| QB keep | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.72 pts |
| Curl route | +0.49 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.12 pts |
| Play action | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.31 pts |
| End-around | -2.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Deep post | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.