Raiders vs Chargers — Week 15, 2020
The Raiders took over tied at 24 with 3:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 24, Chargers 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 37, 3:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 59.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 60.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to LV 37 for no gain (97-J.Bosa).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 83-D.Waller ran ob at LAC 48 for 15 yards.
- (2:55) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 83-D.Waller ran ob at LAC 23 for 25 yards (26-C.Hayward Jr.).
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs right guard to LAC 21 for 2 yards (93-J.Jones, 71-D.Square).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 12-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at LAC 16. 25-C.Harris to LV 33 for 51 yards (8-M.Mariota).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.04 pts |
| QB keep | +0.81 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.68 pts |
| Curl route | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Outside run | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Play action | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.58 pts |
| End-around | -2.72 pts |
| Spike it | -2.84 pts |
| Deep post | -3.40 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.