Rams vs 49ers — Week 12, 2020
The Rams took over tied at 20 with 3:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 20, 49ers 23. 49ers won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.8% for Rams. Our model starts at 56.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to LA 33 for 8 yards (41-E.Moseley).
- (2:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at LA 39 for 6 yards (20-J.Ward).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods to LA 44 for 5 yards (25-R.Sherman).
- (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 17-R.Woods.
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 10-C.Kupp.
- (2:20) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.22 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.22 pts |
| QB keep | +1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.91 pts |
| Curl route | +0.71 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.28 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.18 pts |
| Outside run | +0.14 pts |
| Play action | +0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.80 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.16 pts |
| End-around | -2.59 pts |
| Deep post | -2.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.