Cardinals vs Patriots — Week 12, 2020
The Cardinals took over tied at 17 with 4:27 left, 1st & 10 at the Patriots 47, 1 timeout in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 17, Patriots 20. Patriots won 20-17 — the drive missed field goal.
Cardinals ball, even score — any score wins it. Near midfield, 4:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.2% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 63.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:27) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake right guard to NE 42 for 5 yards (55-J.Simon).
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 17-A.Isabella to NE 40 for 2 yards (31-J.Jones). NE 50-Winovich deflected pass
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds left tackle to NE 36 for 4 yards (41-M.Bryant).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle to NE 32 for 4 yards (93-L.Guy, 55-J.Simon).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake left tackle to NE 28 for 4 yards (32-D.McCourty).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake left end to NE 27 for 1 yard (51-J.Bentley; 59-T.Hall).
- (1:52) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.37 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.53 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.34 pts |
| Outside run | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.05 pts |
| Curl route | -0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.26 pts |
| Inside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Play action | -0.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.63 pts |
| Spike it | -2.72 pts |
| End-around | -2.85 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.09 pts |
| Deep post | -4.15 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.