Titans vs Steelers — Week 7, 2020
The Titans took over trailing 27-24 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Titans 24, Steelers 27. Steelers won 27-24 — the drive missed field goal.
Titans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 2:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.2% for Titans. Our model starts at 26.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-A.Brown to TEN 29 for 9 yards (20-C.Sutton).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at TEN 41 for 17 yards (22-S.Nelson).
- (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 81-J.Smith to 50 for 9 yards (20-C.Sutton).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to TEN 49 for -1 yards (23-J.Haden).
- (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 84-C.Davis pushed ob at PIT 44 for 7 yards (23-J.Haden).
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to PIT 46 for -2 yards (98-V.Williams).
- (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Humphries (20-C.Sutton).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 25 for 21 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
- (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right [91-S.Tuitt]. PENALTY on TEN-17-R.Tannehill, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 25.
- (:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 84-C.Davis to PIT 28 for 7 yards (23-J.Haden).
- (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 84-C.Davis.
- (:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.78 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.38 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.33 pts |
| QB keep | +1.19 pts |
| Play action | +0.85 pts |
| Deep post | +0.77 pts |
| Quick out | +0.63 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.13 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.20 pts |
| Inside run | -1.25 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| End-around | -1.57 pts |
| Spike it | -2.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.