Vikings vs Bears — Week 15, 2020
The Vikings took over trailing 30-27 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 27, Bears 33. Bears won 33-27 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Vikings ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 2:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.7% for Vikings. Our model starts at 28.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) 33-D.Cook up the middle to MIN 23 for 3 yards (98-B.Nichols; 20-D.Shelley).
- (2:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 33-D.Cook to MIN 29 for 6 yards (20-D.Shelley).
- (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-D.Cook up the middle to MIN 29 for no gain (94-R.Quinn; 58-R.Smith).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Conklin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.29 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.28 pts |
| QB keep | +1.14 pts |
| Play action | +0.75 pts |
| Quick out | +0.58 pts |
| Deep post | +0.47 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.63 pts |
| End-around | -1.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.