Chiefs vs Falcons — Week 16, 2020
The Chiefs took over trailing 14-10 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 17, Falcons 14. Chiefs won 17-14 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.8% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 27.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left.
- (4:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 17-M.Hardman.
- (4:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce ran ob at ATL 39 for 36 yards (26-I.Oliver). PENALTY on KC-10-T.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 46.
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 31-Darr.Williams left end to KC 47 for 3 yards (54-F.Oluokun).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to ATL 37 for 16 yards (20-K.Sheffield).
- (3:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman to ATL 28 for 9 yards (20-K.Sheffield).
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 31-Darr.Williams left guard to ATL 25 for 3 yards (92-C.Harris).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 10-T.Hill (24-A.Terrell). Atlanta challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.06 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.06 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.78 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Deep post | -0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -1.71 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.04 pts |
| Spike it | -2.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.