Bengals vs Browns — Week 7, 2020
The Bengals took over trailing 31-27 with 4:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 34, Browns 37. Browns won 37-34 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.3% for Bengals. Our model starts at 27.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins to CIN 37 for 12 yards (33-R.Harrison Jr.). CIN-85-T.Higgins was injured during the play.
- (4:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to CLE 48 for 15 yards (98-S.Richardson).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-M.Thomas to CLE 23 for 25 yards (23-A.Sendejo; 33-R.Harrison Jr.).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 18-A.Green.
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd to CLE 19 for 9 yards (21-D.Ward; 28-K.Johnson).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to CLE 12 for 12 yards (33-R.Harrison Jr.). CLE-33-R.Harrison Jr. was injured during the play.
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard up the middle to CLE 6 for 6 yards (42-K.Joseph). CIN-68-B.Hart was injured during the play.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard up the middle to CLE 5 for 1 yard (23-A.Sendejo).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard left tackle to CLE 3 for 2 yards (54-O.Vernon; 98-S.Richardson).
- (1:09) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 25-G.Bernard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.94 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.73 pts |
| QB keep | +0.71 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Deep post | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| End-around | -1.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.08 pts |
| Spike it | -2.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.