Panthers vs Raiders — Week 1, 2020
The Panthers took over trailing 34-30 with 4:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 30, Raiders 34. Raiders won 34-30 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 4:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.4% for Panthers. Our model starts at 27.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:03) 22-C.McCaffrey right end to CAR 45 for 15 yards (24-J.Abram; 50-N.Morrow).
- (3:22) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle to CAR 48 for 3 yards (27-T.Mullen).
- (2:34) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to LV 49 for 3 yards (50-N.Morrow).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left guard to LV 46 for 3 yards (50-N.Morrow).
- (1:23) 40-A.Armah up the middle to LV 46 for no gain (96-C.Ferrell; 42-C.Littleton).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.27 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.99 pts |
| QB keep | +0.91 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.30 pts |
| Deep post | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.62 pts |
| End-around | -1.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.87 pts |
| Spike it | -2.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.