Patriots vs Bills — Week 8, 2020
The Patriots took over trailing 24-21 with 4:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 21, Bills 24. Bills won 24-21 — the drive turnover.
Patriots ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 21, 4:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.8% for Patriots. Our model starts at 31.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:03) 37-D.Harris right end to NE 27 for 6 yards (31-D.Marlowe, 27-T.White). BUF-49-T.Edmunds was injured during the play. His return is Probable. T.Edmunds assisted off.
- (3:35) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers.
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 16-J.Meyers to NE 35 for 8 yards (24-T.Johnson).
- (3:01) 37-D.Harris left guard to NE 37 for 2 yards (99-H.Phillips).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-D.Byrd to NE 45 for 8 yards (39-L.Wallace).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 28-J.White to BUF 48 for 7 yards (97-M.Addison).
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end to BUF 29 for 19 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (1:19) 37-D.Harris left guard to BUF 26 for 3 yards (59-A.Smith).
- (:53) 37-D.Harris left end pushed ob at BUF 20 for 6 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
- (:47) 34-R.Burkhead left end pushed ob at BUF 19 for 1 yard (27-T.White).
- (:42) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle. Thrown away.
- (:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to BUF 14 for 5 yards (61-J.Zimmer). FUMBLES (61-J.Zimmer), RECOVERED by BUF-31-D.Marlowe at BUF 13.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.21 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.93 pts |
| Play action | +0.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.28 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Deep post | -0.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| End-around | -1.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.35 pts |
| Spike it | -2.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.