Bills vs Rams — Week 3, 2020
The Bills took over trailing 32-28 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Bills 35, Rams 32. Bills won 35-32 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.1% for Bills. Our model starts at 27.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-C.Beasley to BUF 43 for 18 yards (24-T.Rapp).
- (3:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left [97-M.Fox]. Thrown away under pressure. Los Angeles Rams challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 31 for -12 yards (97-M.Fox). J.Allen down by contact before throw-away.
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 11-C.Beasley. Caught out of bounds.
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 11-C.Beasley to LA 47 for 22 yards (24-T.Rapp).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie to LA 41 for 6 yards (45-O.Okoronkwo). BUF-73-D.Dawkins was injured during the play.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right tackle to LA 34 for 7 yards (54-L.Floyd, 99-A.Donald).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to LA 15 for 19 yards (22-T.Hill).
- (:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 19-I.McKenzie [54-L.Floyd].
- (:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 26-D.Singletary.
- (:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs to LA 13 for 17 yards (26-T.Burgess).
- (:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 81-T.Kroft for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.07 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.83 pts |
| QB keep | +0.79 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep post | -0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| End-around | -1.70 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.02 pts |
| Spike it | -2.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.