Chiefs vs Chargers — Week 2, 2020
The Chiefs took over trailing 20-17 with 2:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 20, Chargers 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.0% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 30.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 36 for 11 yards (56-K.Murray Jr.). Penalty on LAC-97-J.Bosa, Defensive Offside, declined.
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to LAC 48 for 16 yards (20-D.King II).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 87-T.Kelce [44-K.White].
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman to LAC 45 for 8 yards (43-M.Davis).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at LAC 35 for 10 yards (43-M.Davis).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 17-M.Hardman.
- (:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 10-T.Hill (56-K.Murray Jr.) [99-J.Tillery].
- (:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to LAC 24 for 21 yards (24-N.Adderley).
- (:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire to LAC 17 for 7 yards (44-K.White) [42-U.Nwosu].
- (:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-D.Robinson to LAC 13 for 14 yards (26-C.Hayward Jr.).
- (:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end ran ob at LAC 12 for 1 yard (97-J.Bosa; 25-C.Harris Jr.).
- (:03) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.93 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.49 pts |
| QB keep | +1.33 pts |
| Play action | +0.92 pts |
| Quick out | +0.71 pts |
| Deep post | +0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.41 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| End-around | -1.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.