Buccaneers vs Falcons — Week 15, 2020
The Buccaneers took over leading 31-27 with 4:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 27. Buccaneers won 31-27 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 27, 4:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.1% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 80.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:40) 28-L.Fournette right guard to TB 44 for 17 yards (45-D.Jones; 41-S.Neasman).
- (3:54) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 28-L.Fournette right guard to TB 46 for 2 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (3:48) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 38 for -8 yards (97-G.Jarrett).
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 25-L.McCoy to ATL 49 for 13 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (2:52) 8-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 15-B.Powell.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.62 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.62 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.04 pts |
| QB keep | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.67 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Curl route | -1.82 pts |
| Play action | -1.83 pts |
| End-around | -4.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.88 pts |
| Deep post | -6.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.