Jets vs Rams — Week 15, 2020
The Jets took over leading 23-20 with 3:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Jets 23, Rams 20. Jets won 23-20 — the drive time expired.
Jets ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 37, 3:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.1% for Jets. Our model starts at 78.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:54) 21-F.Gore right tackle to NYJ 40 for 3 yards (69-S.Joseph).
- (3:10) 21-F.Gore up the middle to NYJ 48 for 8 yards (54-L.Floyd).
- (2:25) 21-F.Gore left tackle to LA 48 for 4 yards (51-T.Reeder).
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 21-F.Gore up the middle to LA 48 for no gain (69-S.Joseph).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 21-F.Gore to LA 42 for 6 yards (43-J.Johnson III).
- (2:00) 14-S.Darnold kneels to LA 43 for -1 yards.
- (1:20) 14-S.Darnold kneels to LA 44 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 14-S.Darnold kneels to LA 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.79 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.27 pts |
| Outside run | +0.26 pts |
| QB keep | -0.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Quick out | -0.32 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Curl route | -1.34 pts |
| Play action | -1.45 pts |
| End-around | -3.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.81 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.46 pts |
| Deep post | -6.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.