Falcons vs Bears — Week 3, 2020
The Falcons took over leading 26-23 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 26, Bears 30. Bears won 30-26 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.2% for Falcons. Our model starts at 74.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 23-B.Hill [96-A.Hicks].
- (4:18) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 25-I.Smith.
- (4:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 17-O.Zaccheaus [96-A.Hicks].
- (4:10) 4-S.Hofrichter punts 45 yards to CHI 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-A.Miller to CHI 41 for 6 yards (91-J.Tuioti-Mariner). PENALTY on ATL-40-K.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 41.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.29 pts |
| Outside run | +0.15 pts |
| QB keep | -0.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.27 pts |
| Quick out | -0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Curl route | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Play action | -1.35 pts |
| End-around | -3.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.23 pts |
| Deep post | -5.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.59 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.