Lions vs Bears — Week 1, 2020
The Lions took over leading 23-20 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Lions 23, Bears 27. Bears won 27-23 — the drive turnover.
Lions ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.5% for Lions. Our model starts at 78.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to DET 28 for 3 yards (59-D.Trevathan).
- (2:50) 28-A.Peterson left end to DET 30 for 2 yards (98-B.Nichols).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller (33-J.Johnson) at DET 42. 23-K.Fuller to DET 37 for 5 yards (88-T.Hockenson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.62 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.45 pts |
| Outside run | +0.31 pts |
| QB keep | +0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.12 pts |
| Quick out | -0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.28 pts |
| Inside run | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Curl route | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
| Play action | -1.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.64 pts |
| End-around | -3.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.28 pts |
| Deep post | -6.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.