49ers vs Cowboys — Week 15, 2020
The 49ers took over trailing 27-24 with 4:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 33, Cowboys 41. Cowboys won 41-33 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 29, 4:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.6% for 49ers. Our model starts at 34.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:34) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 34 for 5 yards (26-J.Lewis). PENALTY on SF-69-M.McGlinchey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 34.
- (4:22) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to SF 30 for 11 yards (37-D.Wilson).
- (3:30) 30-J.Wilson left guard to SF 49 for 1 yard (79-J.Hamilton; 95-E.Ankou).
- (2:51) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown [79-J.Hamilton] at DAL 40. 30-A.Brown ran ob at SF 46 for 14 yards (30-J.Wilson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.02 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.02 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.85 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep post | -0.77 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.80 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.95 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -1.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.31 pts |
| Spike it | -2.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.