Chargers vs Buccaneers — Week 4, 2020
The Chargers took over trailing 38-31 with 2:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 31, Buccaneers 38. Buccaneers won 38-31 — the drive turnover.
Chargers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 8.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 22-J.Jackson pushed ob at LAC 28 for 3 yards (35-J.Dean).
- (2:35) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis at TB 48. 24-C.Davis pushed ob at LAC 21 for 31 yards (88-V.Green). PENALTY on TB-45-D.White, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 49.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.84 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.84 pts |
| Deep post | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| QB keep | +0.43 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.23 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| End-around | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.94 pts |
| Spike it | -0.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.