Cardinals vs Seahawks — Week 11, 2020
The Cardinals took over trailing 28-21 with 2:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 21, Seahawks 28. Seahawks won 28-21 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 21, 2:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.5% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 7.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 27 for 6 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 33 for 6 yards (21-T.Flowers).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 17-A.Isabella ran ob at ARI 39 for 6 yards (28-U.Amadi).
- (1:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 13-C.Kirk to SEA 49 for 12 yards (29-D.Reed).
- (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins.
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to SEA 38 for 11 yards (28-U.Amadi).
- (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle to SEA 27 for 11 yards (50-K.Wright; 90-J.Reed).
- (:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 13-C.Kirk.
- (:50) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald (37-Q.Diggs).
- (:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 17-A.Isabella (29-D.Reed) [90-J.Reed].
- (:38) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at SEA 33 for -6 yards (43-C.Dunlap).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.85 pts |
| Curl route | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.47 pts |
| QB keep | +0.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| End-around | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Spike it | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.