Cardinals vs Eagles — Week 15, 2020
The Cardinals took over leading 33-26 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 33, Eagles 26. Cardinals won 33-26 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 22, 1:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.6% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 95.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 41-K.Drake up the middle to ARI 27 for 5 yards (96-D.Barnett).
- (1:45) 41-K.Drake up the middle to ARI 27 for no gain (96-D.Barnett).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end to ARI 31 for 4 yards (21-J.Mills).
- (1:35) 4-A.Lee punts 47 yards to PHI 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.91 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.91 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.89 pts |
| Curl route | -3.26 pts |
| End-around | -5.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.34 pts |
| Deep post | -9.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.