Packers vs Lions — Week 14, 2020
The Packers took over leading 31-24 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at the Lions 45, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Packers 31, Lions 24. Packers won 31-24 — the drive time expired.
Packers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.6% for Packers. Our model starts at 97.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) 33-A.Jones left end to DET 41 for 4 yards (42-J.Kearse).
- (1:44) 33-A.Jones up the middle to DET 40 for 1 yard (42-J.Kearse).
- (1:40) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-R.Tonyan to DET 34 for 6 yards (38-M.Ford).
- (:59) 12-A.Rodgers kneels to DET 35 for -1 yards.
- (:22) 12-A.Rodgers kneels to DET 36 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.63 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.90 pts |
| Quick out | -1.25 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.27 pts |
| QB keep | -1.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Play action | -3.12 pts |
| Curl route | -3.54 pts |
| End-around | -5.54 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.59 pts |
| Deep post | -9.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.53 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.