Broncos vs Dolphins — Week 11, 2020
The Broncos took over leading 20-13 with 1:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 20, Dolphins 13. Broncos won 20-13 — the drive time expired.
Broncos ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 1:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.8% for Broncos. Our model starts at 96.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:03) 30-P.Lindsay left tackle to DEN 20 for no gain (21-E.Rowe).
- (:58) 30-P.Lindsay right guard to DEN 23 for 3 yards (44-E.Roberts).
- (:51) 30-P.Lindsay right guard to DEN 21 for -2 yards (91-E.Ogbah).
- (:04) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick to MIA 23 for 61 yards (25-X.Howard) [53-K.Van Noy].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.75 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.75 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.80 pts |
| Quick out | -1.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.51 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Play action | -3.00 pts |
| Curl route | -3.39 pts |
| End-around | -5.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.46 pts |
| Deep post | -9.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.