Bears vs Panthers — Week 6, 2020
The Bears took over leading 23-16 with 1:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 23, Panthers 16. Bears won 23-16 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 38, 1:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.4% for Bears. Our model starts at 96.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:55) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to CHI 45 for 7 yards (33-T.Boston).
- (1:49) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to CHI 46 for 1 yard (57-A.Taylor; 53-B.Burns).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Robinson (24-R.Douglas).
- (1:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.79 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.81 pts |
| Quick out | -1.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -3.00 pts |
| Curl route | -3.39 pts |
| End-around | -5.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.46 pts |
| Deep post | -9.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.