Falcons vs Broncos — Week 9, 2020
The Falcons took over leading 34-27 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at the Broncos 44, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 34, Broncos 27. Falcons won 34-27 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Broncos territory, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.9% for Falcons. Our model starts at 97.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) 21-T.Gurley right tackle to DEN 40 for 4 yards (45-A.Johnson; 26-K.Toliver).
- (1:46) 21-T.Gurley left tackle to DEN 40 for no gain (45-A.Johnson; 23-M.Ojemudia).
- (:58) 73-M.Gono reported in as eligible. 21-T.Gurley right guard to DEN 39 for 1 yard (55-B.Chubb). Penalty on ATL, Illegal Formation, declined.
- (:50) 4-S.Hofrichter punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.93 pts |
| Quick out | -1.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.28 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.29 pts |
| QB keep | -1.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Play action | -3.16 pts |
| Curl route | -3.59 pts |
| End-around | -5.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.63 pts |
| Deep post | -9.51 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.