Seahawks vs Dolphins — Week 4, 2020
The Seahawks took over leading 31-23 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 31, Dolphins 23. Seahawks won 31-23 — the drive time expired.
Seahawks ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 43, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.6% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 98.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) 32-C.Carson left tackle to SEA 47 for 4 yards (44-E.Roberts).
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (94-C.Wilkins).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson right guard to MIA 47 for 3 yards (92-Z.Sieler). Measurement. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:36) 3-R.Wilson kneels to MIA 48 for -1 yards.
- (:54) 3-R.Wilson kneels to MIA 49 for -1 yards.
- (:12) 3-R.Wilson kneels to 50 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.95 pts |
| Quick out | -1.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.31 pts |
| QB keep | -1.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.76 pts |
| Play action | -3.19 pts |
| Curl route | -3.63 pts |
| End-around | -5.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.67 pts |
| Deep post | -9.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.