Packers vs Jaguars — Week 10, 2020
The Packers took over leading 24-20 with 4:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Packers 24, Jaguars 20. Packers won 24-20 — the drive turned it over.
Packers ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 14, 4:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.7% for Packers. Our model starts at 80.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:06) 33-A.Jones right end to GB 19 for 5 yards (35-S.Jones IV).
- (3:23) 33-A.Jones right end to GB 23 for 4 yards (35-S.Jones IV, 44-M.Jack).
- (2:37) 33-A.Jones up the middle to GB 23 for no gain (96-A.Gotsis; 20-D.Thomas).
- (2:32) 6-J.Scott punts 30 yards to JAX 47, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.86 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.86 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.78 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.84 pts |
| Inside run | -1.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.18 pts |
| QB keep | -1.31 pts |
| Quick out | -1.34 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.40 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.87 pts |
| Play action | -2.37 pts |
| Curl route | -2.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.52 pts |
| End-around | -4.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.21 pts |
| Deep post | -7.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.71 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.