Saints vs Bears — Week 8, 2020
The Saints took over tied at 23 with 3:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Saints 23, Bears 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 32, 3:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.1% for Saints. Our model starts at 59.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:48) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 11-D.Harris to NO 38 for 6 yards (98-B.Nichols).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left end to NO 48 for 10 yards (58-R.Smith).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (39-E.Jackson).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 10-T.Smith to CHI 38 for 14 yards (59-D.Trevathan).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees scrambles left guard to CHI 36 for 2 yards (98-B.Nichols).
- (1:47) 41-A.Kamara right end pushed ob at CHI 11 for 20 yards (59-D.Trevathan).
- (1:40) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.99 pts |
| QB keep | +0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.64 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.55 pts |
| Curl route | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Outside run | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.15 pts |
| Play action | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.55 pts |
| End-around | -2.74 pts |
| Spike it | -2.87 pts |
| Deep post | -3.33 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.60 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.