Chiefs vs Saints — Week 15, 2020
The Chiefs took over leading 32-29 with 2:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 32, Saints 29. Chiefs won 32-29 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 2:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.5% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 81.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:06) 26-L.Bell right guard to KC 27 for 2 yards (56-D.Davis; 93-D.Onyemata).
- (2:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 37 for 10 yards (27-M.Jenkins). Pass 5, YAC 5
- (1:52) 26-L.Bell left guard to KC 42 for 5 yards (53-Z.Baun; 92-M.Davenport).
- (1:45) 26-L.Bell right end to KC 47 for 5 yards (56-D.Davis). KC-26-L.Bell was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful. PENALTY on NO-56-D.Davis, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at KC 47.
- (1:37) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to NO 39 for -1 yards.
- (:56) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to NO 40 for -1 yards.
- (:22) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to NO 41 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.41 pts |
| Outside run | +0.27 pts |
| QB keep | -0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.18 pts |
| Quick out | -0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Curl route | -1.28 pts |
| Play action | -1.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.81 pts |
| End-around | -3.87 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.50 pts |
| Deep post | -6.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.