Giants vs Eagles — Week 7, 2020
The Giants took over leading 21-16 with 4:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Giants 21, Eagles 22. Eagles won 22-21 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 83.5% for Giants. Our model starts at 82.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:34) (Shotgun) 22-W.Gallman up the middle to NYG 34 for 14 yards (49-A.Singleton).
- (3:48) 22-W.Gallman up the middle to NYG 44 for 10 yards (23-R.McLeod; 31-N.Robey).
- (3:03) 22-W.Gallman left tackle to NYG 47 for 3 yards (96-D.Barnett; 47-N.Gerry).
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 22-W.Gallman left end to NYG 47 for no gain (55-B.Graham).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 88-E.Engram.
- (2:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to PHI 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 10-D.Jackson to PHI 14 for 2 yards (25-C.Ballentine). PHI-10-D.Jackson was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-25-C.Ballentine, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 14.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.83 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.83 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.15 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB keep | -0.61 pts |
| Quick out | -0.66 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.80 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Play action | -2.00 pts |
| Curl route | -2.05 pts |
| End-around | -4.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.40 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.12 pts |
| Deep post | -7.22 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.