Browns vs Cowboys — Week 4, 2020
The Browns took over leading 47-38 with 3:37 left, 1st & 10 at midfield, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Browns 49, Cowboys 38. Browns won 49-38 — the drive scored.
Browns ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 3:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.0% for Browns. Our model starts at 96.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:37) 13-O.Beckham right end for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Kick formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 89-S.Carlson rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs. Extra point kick originally blocked; ball recovered in the end zone by Carlson. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.77 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.77 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.91 pts |
| Quick out | -1.25 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.27 pts |
| QB keep | -1.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.68 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -3.11 pts |
| Curl route | -3.53 pts |
| End-around | -5.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.57 pts |
| Deep post | -9.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.48 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.