Steelers vs Eagles — Week 5, 2020
The Steelers took over leading 31-29 with 3:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 47, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 38, Eagles 29. Steelers won 38-29 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. Near midfield, 3:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.6% for Steelers. Our model starts at 78.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:18) 30-J.Conner left tackle to PIT 48 for 1 yard (55-B.Graham). PENALTY on PHI-55-B.Graham, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at PIT 48.
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 14-R.McCloud to PHI 35 for 2 yards (39-C.James).
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 47-N.Gerry at PHI 25. 47-N.Gerry to PHI 36 for 11 yards (85-E.Ebron). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 85-E.Ebron (23-R.McLeod).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 11-C.Claypool for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.41 pts |
| Outside run | +0.30 pts |
| QB keep | +0.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.16 pts |
| Quick out | -0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.30 pts |
| Inside run | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Curl route | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
| Play action | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.67 pts |
| End-around | -3.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.32 pts |
| Deep post | -6.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.