Giants vs Commanders — Week 9, 2020
The Giants took over leading 23-20 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 46, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Giants 23, Commanders 20. Giants won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.6% for Giants. Our model starts at 86.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:18) 74-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 8-D.Jones pass short right to 85-L.Toilolo to NYG 46 for no gain (23-R.Darby).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 22-W.Gallman up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (94-D.Payne).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 43 for -7 yards (31-K.Curl).
- (2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to WAS 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 15-S.Sims pushed ob at WAS 28 for 12 yards (9-R.Dixon).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Outside run | +0.09 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Inside run | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| QB keep | -0.49 pts |
| Quick out | -0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.62 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Play action | -1.90 pts |
| Curl route | -1.96 pts |
| End-around | -4.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.15 pts |
| Deep post | -7.40 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.