Panthers vs Chargers — Week 3, 2020
The Panthers took over leading 21-16 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 21, Chargers 16. Panthers won 21-16 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.3% for Panthers. Our model starts at 84.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:33) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 12-D.Moore to LAC 48 for 27 yards (24-N.Adderley).
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 28-M.Davis up the middle to LAC 46 for 2 yards (23-R.Jenkins; 42-U.Nwosu).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 28-M.Davis to LAC 37 for 9 yards (52-D.Perryman).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater left end to LAC 31 for 6 yards (43-M.Davis).
- (2:07) 28-M.Davis up the middle to LAC 32 for -1 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at LAC 40 for -8 yards (97-J.Bosa).
- (1:55) 3-J.Charlton punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-J.Charlton punts 39 yards to LAC 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-44-J.Jansen.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.06 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.22 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB keep | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.78 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Play action | -2.11 pts |
| Curl route | -2.20 pts |
| End-around | -4.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.28 pts |
| Deep post | -7.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.