Packers vs Panthers — Week 15, 2020
The Packers took over leading 24-16 with 2:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Packers 24, Panthers 16. Packers won 24-16 — the drive turned it over.
Packers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 2:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.1% for Packers. Our model starts at 97.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:04) 33-A.Jones right guard to GB 32 for 7 yards (56-J.Carter; 21-J.Chinn).
- (1:58) 33-A.Jones right tackle to GB 31 for -1 yards (93-B.Roy).
- (1:53) 76-J.Runyan reported in as eligible. 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 17 for -14 yards (53-B.Burns).
- (1:07) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to CAR 30, Center-43-H.Bradley. 14-P.Cooper to CAR 41 for 11 yards (44-T.Summers). PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.73 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.73 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.86 pts |
| Quick out | -1.21 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.24 pts |
| QB keep | -1.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -3.06 pts |
| Curl route | -3.47 pts |
| End-around | -5.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.53 pts |
| Deep post | -9.37 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.45 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.