49ers vs Rams — Week 6, 2020
The 49ers took over leading 24-16 with 3:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 24, Rams 16. 49ers won 24-16 — the drive time expired.
49ers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.9% for 49ers. Our model starts at 94.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:24) 38-J.Hasty up the middle to SF 35 for 10 yards (22-T.Hill; 24-T.Rapp).
- (2:37) 38-J.Hasty left tackle to SF 35 for no gain (69-S.Joseph).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 38-J.Hasty right end to SF 38 for 3 yards (99-A.Donald; 43-J.Johnson III).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to SF 49 for 11 yards (24-T.Rapp). caught at SF 33, 16 YAC
- (1:13) 10-J.Garoppolo kneels to SF 48 for -1 yards.
- (:32) 10-J.Garoppolo kneels to SF 47 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.07 pts |
| Outside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.11 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.87 pts |
| Curl route | -3.23 pts |
| End-around | -5.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.30 pts |
| Deep post | -9.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.