Rams vs Giants — Week 4, 2020
The Rams took over leading 17-9 with 2:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Rams 17, Giants 9. Rams won 17-9 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 31, 2:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.3% for Rams. Our model starts at 96.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:33) 27-D.Henderson right tackle to LA 32 for 1 yard (54-B.Martinez; 59-L.Carter).
- (2:28) 10-C.Kupp left end pushed ob at LA 30 for -2 yards (51-K.Fackrell).
- (2:22) 34-M.Brown up the middle to LA 32 for 2 yards (54-B.Martinez).
- (2:17) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NYG 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-G.Tate ran ob at NYG 20 for 6 yards (82-J.Mundt).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.79 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.85 pts |
| Quick out | -1.20 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.23 pts |
| QB keep | -1.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.67 pts |
| Play action | -3.04 pts |
| Curl route | -3.45 pts |
| End-around | -5.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.51 pts |
| Deep post | -9.33 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.41 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.