Commanders vs 49ers — Week 14, 2020
The Commanders took over leading 23-15 with 3:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 1, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 23, 49ers 15. Commanders won 23-15 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 1, 3:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.9% for Commanders. Our model starts at 93.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:50) 34-P.Barber up the middle to WAS 3 for 2 yards (51-A.Al-Shaair).
- (3:47) 34-P.Barber up the middle to WAS 5 for 2 yards (92-K.Hyder; 96-D.Jordan).
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 41-J.McKissic to WAS 10 for 5 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). Washington challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (2:56) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to SF 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 48 for 10 yards (5-T.Way, 19-R.Foster).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.19 pts |
| Quick out | -1.48 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| QB keep | -1.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.00 pts |
| Play action | -3.35 pts |
| Curl route | -3.83 pts |
| End-around | -5.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.74 pts |
| Deep post | -9.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.53 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.