Raiders vs Saints — Week 2, 2020
The Raiders took over leading 31-24 with 4:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 1 timeout in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 34, Saints 24. Raiders won 34-24 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 18, 4:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.9% for Raiders. Our model starts at 89.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:27) 28-J.Jacobs right tackle to LV 30 for 12 yards (43-M.Williams).
- (3:42) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LV 32 for 2 yards (90-M.Brown; 56-D.Davis).
- (2:57) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LV 35 for 3 yards (94-C.Jordan).
- (2:08) 23-D.Booker left tackle to NO 39 for -3 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
- (2:00) 28-J.Jacobs right guard to NO 39 for no gain (91-T.Hendrickson).
- (1:56) 28-J.Jacobs left end to NO 36 for 3 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
- (1:08) 2-D.Carlson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.41 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -1.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.61 pts |
| Curl route | -2.85 pts |
| End-around | -4.85 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.88 pts |
| Deep post | -8.31 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.59 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.41 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.