Giants vs Bengals — Week 12, 2020
The Giants took over leading 16-10 with 4:12 left, 1st & 10 at the Bengals 19, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Giants 19, Bengals 17. Giants won 19-17 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At the Bengals 19, 4:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.7% for Giants. Our model starts at 94.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:12) 22-W.Gallman Jr. right tackle to CIN 20 for -1 yards (55-L.Wilson).
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy right end pushed ob at CIN 17 for 3 yards (56-J.Bynes).
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 33-D.Lewis left guard to CIN 14 for 3 yards (50-J.Evans).
- (3:58) 5-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.12 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.12 pts |
| Field goal | +0.10 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.73 pts |
| Quick out | -1.11 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.86 pts |
| Curl route | -3.22 pts |
| End-around | -5.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.40 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.31 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.10 pts |
| Deep post | -9.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.